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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."